The shape of a possible Trump plan for Ukraine is emerging

After Donald Trump’s election victory, the world is watching Ukraine with bated breath. The Republican promised to end the war “in 24 hours.” However, the president-elect gave no details on how he plans to achieve this. During the election campaign, he indicated that this uncertainty was part of his negotiating tactics. “I can’t give you these plans because if I give you these plans, I won’t be able to use them,” he said.

But while Trump keeps his cards hidden, people close to him have already revealed some important points in interviews. Speaking to the BBC on Saturday, Bryan Lanza said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s main goal must be a peace deal with Russia, not retaking lost territories. Lanza describes himself as a “senior adviser” to the president-elect and has worked for him since 2016. “If Zelensky says we will only end these fighting, there will only be peace when Crimea is returned, then we have news.” “For President Zelensky: Crimea is gone,” Lanza told the BBC. Trump will demand a “realistic vision for peace” from Kiev, he added.

A Trump spokesman immediately distanced the president-elect from these statements. Lanza was only a contractor for the Trump campaign and “does not work for or speak for President Trump,” the spokesman said. Lanza is now a partner at the consulting firm Mercury Public Affairs. Another partner at this firm is Susie Wiles – Trump’s campaign manager and future new chief of staff in the White House after the Republican takes office. The BBC interview may have been a test balloon designed to test the reactions of the various parties to the conflict.

Lanza’s statements are not fundamentally different from other ideas that have previously leaked from Trump’s inner circle. They all have one thing in common: they recommend freezing the conflict, thereby creating a situation in which Russia retains control over the territories it has conquered so far and Ukraine gives up its ambitions to join NATO, at least for a long time.

Ukraine as a European problem

Last week, the Wall Street Journal reported on a plan to establish a demilitarized zone along the current 1,200-kilometer-long front line. The newspaper said it based its report on information from three people currently involved in setting up Trump’s new administration. Under this plan, Ukraine would refrain from joining NATO for at least the next 20 years. At the same time, the US would continue to supply Kiev with weapons to prevent Russia from resuming its war of aggression.

The draft plan calls for European peacekeepers to take on the task of securing the demilitarized zone. “We are not sending American men and women to maintain peace in Ukraine. And we don’t pay for it. Get the Poles, Germans, British and French to do it,” a Trump adviser told the WSJ.

This plan is consistent with an interview that new Vice President JD Vance gave in September. He also spoke out in favor of creating a demilitarized zone along the current front line. However, he described the role of the United States in future negotiations as that of a neutral mediator. A crucial factor in such a plan will be whether Trump is also willing to put pressure on Russia to force Kremlin President Vladimir Putin to compromise. Another proposal, drawn up by two Trump advisers in early summer, recommended a two-pronged tactic. On the one hand, Washington would force the Ukrainians to the negotiating table by threatening to cut off military aid. On the other hand, the US would also threaten Russia and indicate that it would expand its arms supplies to Kiev if the Kremlin refused to negotiate.

In an interview in July 2023, Trump signaled his willingness to pursue such a course. He said he would tell Putin: “If you don’t make a deal, we will give them (the Ukrainians) a lot. If we have to, we will give them more (weapons) than they ever got.” Still, it’s not yet clear what exactly an ideal peace might look like for Trump – aside from the fact that he wants it to happen quickly.

Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley on the sidelines

Trump spoke to Putin by phone for the first time on Thursday. According to a report in the Washington Post on Sunday, Trump warned the Russian president not to further escalate the war. The future president also expressed interest in further talks with Putin in order to end the war “soon”.

However, Putin doesn’t seem to be in a hurry at the moment. In contrast to the USA and other allies of Ukraine in the West, the Kremlin boss is not tired of war. The Russian armed forces are advancing – albeit slowly – and have now even received North Korean reinforcements. Putin is unlikely to be content to simply freeze the conflict along the current front line. He also wants Kiev to withdraw its troops from areas in the southeast of the country that Russia has not yet fully conquered. He is likely to insist on international recognition of his land grab. And he will probably only accept a neutral Ukraine that does not have a powerful army. The deployment of European peacekeepers is also likely to be a warning signal for Putin. After all, his war goal was and is the annihilation of the entire Ukraine as an autonomous state.

A lot will depend on who ultimately has Trump’s ear on these issues. Unlike during his first term, isolationist voices appear to be gaining the upper hand in the emerging Republican government. On Saturday, Trump announced that his incoming Cabinet would not include his former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Richard Grenell is now considered the top candidate for the post of foreign minister or national security advisor. Trump’s former ambassador in Berlin is very loyal to the elected president. In July, Grenell spoke out in favor of establishing “autonomous regions” in southeastern Ukraine and against Kiev’s possible NATO membership. Grenell, like Trump, seems to believe that Ukraine is primarily a European problem. And if the Europeans want a better peace for Kyiv, they have to invest more.

Latest articles

Global reporting. Swiss quality journalism.

In today’s increasingly polarized media market, the Switzerland-based NZZ offers a critical and fact-based perspective from the outside. We are not in the breaking news business. We provide thoughtful, well-researched stories and analysis that go behind the headlines and explain relevant events in the US, Europe and around the world. To produce this work, the NZZ maintains an industry-leading network of specialist reporters around the globe who work closely with our main editorial team in Zurich.

Sign up for our free newsletter or follow us on TwitterFacebook or WhatsApp.