The use of private jets continues to increase and the outlook for 2025 remains positive

The private jet world appears to be stabilizing from its record highs during the Covid years. The fractional and jet card segments are still above pre-COVID sales levels, while others, such as used aircraft sales and on-demand charter, have declined from dizzying highs in 2021 and 2022.

At last week’s Corporate Jet Investor (CJI) conference in Miami, in an industry known for its cyclical ups and downs, sentiment was positive about the near-term future of business aviation. Aircraft company CEOs, jet card executives, aviation lawyers, aircraft brokers and private equity representatives examined various sectors of the industry over three days of interviews and panel discussions. They agreed, with some exceptions, that the market remains strong after these unprecedented pandemic highs.

“We are completely satisfied,” said Don Dwyer, director at Guardian Jet, a brokerage firm specializing in advice and sales of used aircraft. “We see a fundamental optimism among people buying and selling aircraft. The market remains strong. This is our biggest year ever.”

The re-election of Donald Trump appears to have had an immediate positive impact. “Our market indicators are up 35 points since the election,” says Rollie Vincent, director of JetNet IQ, which tracks business aviation in industry surveys. “At the moment there are many signs that the situation will not slow down, at least not in the short term – unless a black swan event occurs.”

Business aviation is divided into several categories: new and used aircraft sales, fractional ownership (where a company or individual purchases an ownership interest in a jet for three to five years), on-demand charter, and jet cards.

“It’s crazy. We saw our spring extended beyond the usual season and then the summer was very busy,” says Alan Walsh, senior vice president of customer management and operations at Sentient, a jet card manufacturer. He explains that the company expects to sell $100 million worth of flights by the end of the year and expects a strong year next year “barring any unforeseen major issues.”

Sentient’s sister company, Flexjet, has seen some growth in its business during the Covid years and beyond. The company reported year-to-date sales growth of 11 percent compared to last year, with a waiting list in place.

For the entire Fractional segment, including Fractional’s largest company, NetJets, Flexjet, and nearly a dozen smaller companies, the number of flights increased 59 percent in the second quarter of 2024 compared to the same quarter in pre-Covid 2019. A mix The proportion of full aircraft owners who are now selling their jets and moving into partial, charter and corporate aviation divisions is driving the increase.

“Surprisingly, our sub-customer profile has gotten about 10 years younger,” said Kenn Ricci, managing director of Directional Aviation Capital, during the keynote address. “That’s a good thing because they stay with us longer. We also sell shares in four times as many medium and super-mid aircraft as we do in light aircraft. So the jets are getting bigger and bigger. The other big change is our international growth.”

According to Vincent, the used aircraft market, which has slowed after hectic sales activity in 2021 and 2022, appears to be stabilizing in the second half of the year. “Values ​​are holding higher and longer than expected and we expect values ​​to rise in the fourth quarter of this year,” he said. Due to the US tax, there is a surge in business aircraft sales in the fourth quarter.

New business jet deliveries were worth about $700 million this year, Vincent said, noting there was also a backlog of unbuilt planes on order worth about $51 billion. “That’s enough for several years of production,” he said. “This means that the aircraft manufacturers are in good shape.”

On-demand charter is the only market segment that is weaker, according to industry analyst ARGUS, which reported a 5.2 percent decline in total hours in the first half of 2024 compared to the first half of 2023. But the decline was 14.7 percent from the 2022 peak, making it an even better indicator of on-demand charter decline.

A shortage of aircraft repair technicians and insufficient maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) centers, as well as a persistent shortage of parts in the supply chain, are leaving many aircraft grounded for days or even weeks. Ricci says a third of the Flexjet fleet is under repair at any given time. Most experts expect this to continue for several years.

The conference also featured panels focused on new connectivity technologies for aircraft cabins, the use of AI for pilotless aircraft and the FlyHouse app, which promises a seamless, Uber-like experience for people looking to book on-demand charters . Jack Lambert, the founder of FlyHouse, said the app allows potential charterers to start a “reverse auction” between multiple charter companies and get the best price. “At the low end, we think this will be a $3 billion to $5 billion market in five years,” he said.