Analysis: Do Dubas and Sullivan agree? Did Letang throw shade?

The general trajectory of the Pittsburgh Penguins was always going to be down before it could go back up. That’s the nature of salary cap sports, which are played by people who need to look forward and not make decisions with the benefit of hindsight. But several factors particularly undo this Penguins team that should have been avoidable, if not predictable.

Eight lost leads in 21 games? Wait, that’s eight multi-goal leads in 21 games.

The basic facts are easy to cite and it’s easier to grit your teeth and demand better. The team demands more, so there’s no reason why fans shouldn’t too. It seems the Penguins have many offenders, but the same few seem to be at the center of the storm when problems arise.

Did Kris Letang throw a little shade in the locker room on Wednesday when he tried to explain why so…so many clues were lost?

“I think the problem is largely individual. And I think it’s a team effort. We play two good periods where (the opponent) makes one, that’s enough to lose the game,” Letang said.

Huh.

We haven’t had a chance to continue, but it’s an interesting approach.

Individual problems

There is no question that goalkeeper Tristan Jarry has failed to be a timely goalkeeper this season. In his limited starts, the former presumptive No. 1 goalie has given up poor early and poor late goals, such as how he ruined a good performance against the Tampa Bay Lightning on Tuesday by completely losing his net in overtime , which gave Brayden Point an easy game to stuff.

Of course, Point was able to score without much resistance from Matt Grzelcyk, who also fired Point for the first goal of the game. Grzelcyk was on the ice for far too many goals. At even strength, Grzelcyk is minus-10 in just 21 games. However, if you prefer NaturalStatTrick.com’s advanced analytics, they are only slightly better, with an expected goals-for-ratio of 44%.

As a top defender, Grzelcyk has a lot of defensive responsibility, but he was featured in more of the opposing team’s highlights than his own.

Erik Karlsson’s work in the defensive zone is also often a problem. The Karlsson calculus always included a shaky defense but enough offense to overcome it. However, as the Penguins struggle to defend their lead, Karlsson’s defensive deficiencies and sometimes underwhelming defensive performance become apparent.

With a lead, the game can shift to a defensive position – at least for a moment while the other team pushes back – and the Penguins simply have difficulty defending the puck or keeping it out of their net.

The strikers changed their scapegoat positions, even though those responsible for the shutdown defense actually had problems too.

Dubas and Sullivan

In full disclosure, not a hint of dissent was whispered or heard through the walls inside the PPG Paints Arena. No, this is more about understanding which players will/would be successful.

So far, very few of Dubas’s acquisitions have worked well. Goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic may be the biggest success story, but certainly no skater has exceeded his expectations, and most have performed worse.

Well then.

Tracing the Penguins’ acquisitions over the past two seasons, a legitimate question arises. Does general manager Kyle Dubas understand or understand coach Mike Sullivan’s system?

Actually, Sullivan’s system borders on philosophy, but we’ll leave that for another day. Before we ask the urgent question, some practical knowledge of the structure is important first.

In No Pucks Given, Episode 6, we played the extended clip where Sullivan answers a question about Michael Bunting, but really lays bare the decisions and responsibilities of the forwards as part of the “system.” It’s 3:45 p.m.

“He goes back to the D-zone and realizes which striker he is. Is he the first striker and bottom man? If he’s the second striker, he’s the third striker, and with all of those things come responsibilities,” Sullivan responded on Nov. 11. “(Bunting) does better when he just recognizes which guy he’s chasing (when).”

Another series of situations and decisions regarding puck battles and positioning follows. Sullivan was right when he joked that if he explained everything we would stay there for three days.

Here’s the most important thing: Being successful also requires a certain high hockey IQ. Sullivan designed his system to give star players the most latitude to do things that only star players can do, because star players see or anticipate things in a very different way.

So did Dubas really understand Sullivan’s system when he started acquiring players?

Karlsson was most consistently successful in Ottawa in Guy Boucher’s 1-3-1 defensive system, despite doing a tremendous amount of freelance work. Karlsson was able to do unpredictable things because the rest of the team was in the structure. The last time Karlsson was on a playoff team was under coach Pete DeBoer – another tight-system coach.

That is not the case now.

At the risk of taking things out of context, Karlsson hates summer hockey because of the lack of systems. He says he’s terrible without it.

Sullivan’s system also requires a certain amount of speed, but over the summer Dubas acquired Kevin Hayes and Cody Glass because they arrived with some talent and one or more corresponding draft picks.

However, they aren’t above average skaters either, especially Hayes.

Apparently Grzelcyk is no longer the fast skater he was. Worse, Grzelcyk was successful with coach Bruce Cassidy’s defense-friendly system, but not nearly as good with Jim Montgomery’s fast-paced, up-tempo system. Grzelcyk became a healthy scratch in a system more similar to Sullivan’s.

Defenseman Ryan Graves is an extreme case. He was serviceable in Lindy Ruff’s rigid structure in New Jersey, but has otherwise floated upstream in Pittsburgh.

It appears that Dubas and his associates should have explained some or much of the above.

That leaves the Penguins having to defend their lead with a subpar defensive corps and a mismatch between the coach’s whiteboard and the real Xs and Os on it.

This team shouldn’t have been so bad. It should give Sidney Crosby a chance to make the playoffs, but instead it’s on track to give Dubas a shot at the first overall pick. The incongruities at so many levels are so large that they would be visible from the space station.

Assign blame however you like. That is the situation.