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Pfizer, Moderna and Novo Nordisk – What the future of US healthcare policy means for pharmaceutical stocks

Pfizer, Moderna and Novo Nordisk – What the future of US healthcare policy means for pharmaceutical stocks

President-elect Donald Trump’s recent appointment of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as United States Secretary of Health and Human Services promises to be a watershed moment in the healthcare sector, particularly in light of the powerful pharmaceutical industry.

Kennedy Jr., known for his critical positions on vaccines and the influence of big pharmaceutical companies on health policy, is a controversial figure who inspires both enthusiasm and concern.

Throughout his career, Kennedy Jr. has distinguished himself as an advocate for greater transparency and accountability in the healthcare sector.

However, his views have been the subject of intense debate, particularly due to his claims that certain vaccines may be linked to conditions such as autism – claims that have been refuted by the scientific community.

Still, Kennedy Jr. continues to denounce what he sees as conflicts of interest in regulatory agencies by corporate lobbies and calls for radical reform of institutions like the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) to reduce the influence of the pharmaceutical industry.

Strong market reactions after the announcement

His appointment had an immediate impact on the financial market: shares of major pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer, Moderna and Novo Nordisk recorded significant declines.

These reactions reflect investors’ fears that stronger and less permissive policies could limit the power and profits of these companies.

Measures Kennedy Jr. could implement include reviewing drug and vaccine approval processes, greater transparency in relationships between regulators and pharmaceutical companies and an increased focus on the safety of health products.

However, the impact of this new leadership will not be limited to the corporate sector.

His policies could redefine the design and implementation of the health care system in the United States, affecting areas such as scientific research and population access to essential treatments.

While his approach could bring benefits in the form of greater oversight and ethics in the sector, his controversial positions create uncertainty about the true impact of these changes on public health.

Performance of pharmaceutical companies YTD. Source: Koyfin

Performance of pharmaceutical companies YTD. Source: Koyfin

Company performance following the announcement of Kennedy Jr.'s appointment on November 16, 2024. Source: Koyfin

Company performance following the announcement of Kennedy Jr.’s appointment on November 16, 2024. Source: Koyfin

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s diet thus represents a direct challenge to the pharmaceutical industry’s status quo and promises to transform health care policy in the United States.

At a time when trust in health institutions is crucial, his leadership could be both an opportunity for progress and a breeding ground for controversy.

The future will show to what extent these reforms will have a positive impact on the healthcare system and the lives of citizens.

Individual analysis of company development

When analyzing the price development of individual companies, it can be seen that almost all Big Pharma companies have fallen in price.

However, the financial results of these companies sometimes show controversial data.

A detailed look:

Pfizer

  • Sales increased 31.2% year-over-year
  • Operating margins grew by 50.7 percentage points y/y
  • EBITDA increased by 1012.9% year-on-year
  • Net debt increased by 190.67% year-on-year

Moderna

  • Sales rose 1.7% year-over-year
  • Operating margins grew by 106.1 percentage points y/y
  • EBITDA increased 99% year-on-year
  • Net debt increased by 30.66% year-on-year

Novo Nordisk

  • Sales rose 21.4% year-over-year
  • Operating margins grew by 1.6 percentage points year-on-year
  • EBITDA increased by 22.02% year-on-year
  • Net debt increased by 14.95% year-on-year

After analyzing the key fundamentals of these companies, it can be seen that there are certain divergences between the stock prices and the results presented.

Given the political context, it can be assumed that the markets have already priced in the possible impact of the new government’s measures.

Accordingly, potential declines in fundamental metrics cannot be ruled out.

On the other hand, this company could experience significant recoveries if the policy measures do not materialize in practice.