Penn State-Minnesota Predictions: Will the Nittany Lions avoid upset on the road?

Penn State is approaching its final road game of the 2024 regular season and has its sights set on a spot in the College Football Playoff. Will the Nittany Lions take another step toward securing their spot?

Penn State (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) travels to Minnesota (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) for its second-to-last Big Ten game of the season. The No. 4-ranked Nittany Lions take on the Golden Gophers at TCF Bank Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. The game will be broadcast on CBS.

Penn State is one of the most respected teams in the country at this point in the season. Only Oregon, Ohio State and Texas are ahead of the Nittany Lions in the latest CFP rankings. James Franklin’s team has little chance of advancing to the CFP – and hosting a first-round game at Beaver Stadium – with a win at Minnesota on Saturday and against Maryland next weekend.

This weekend will likely be the toughest of two tests for the Nittany Lions. Minnesota, led by New Hampshire transfer quarterback Max Brosmer, has been playing well of late. The Gophers have won four of their last five games, including wins over Illinois and USC.

The last time Penn State played in Minnesota was in 2019. The Nittany Lions were ranked No. 4 in November and lost a blowout win to PJ Fleck’s team. Franklin and Co. will be hoping for a different result this time around to maintain their momentum heading into the 12-team CFP.

Here are our PennLive staff predictions for Penn State-Minnesota.

Johnny McGonigal, PennLive reporter

PLAYERS ON SITE: Drew Allar. Minnesota, led by freshman phenom safety Koi Perich, leads the Big Ten with 16 interceptions. This is a ball-hawking secondary that can turn the game on its head. It’s up to Allar and OC Andy Kotelnicki to figure out when and how to attack the Gophers – and avoid giving up short fields or, worse, points, to Minnesota.

Don’t be surprised if… Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton combined for 35 runs. The running back duo has only done this once this year (against Illinois). But in its four losses, Minnesota has allowed 683 rushing yards on 167 carries, an average of 41.8 per game. The Nittany Lions have the opportunity to control this game on the ground.

FORECAST: I think this will remind a lot of people of the wins over Illinois and UCLA earlier in the season. The Nittany Lions will dictate the game and at no point – except perhaps the first quarter – are they in danger of an upset. Penn State needs to be businesslike and win if necessary. Penn State 24, Minnesota 13.

Bob Flounders, PennLive reporter

PLAYERS ON SITE: Jaylen Reed and Zakee Wheatley. The Lions’ veteran safeties will be an important part of Penn State’s defensive plan to minimize the damage done by talented Minnesota running back Darius Taylor as a runner and receiver. I like the PSU matchup here.

Don’t be surprised if: The Lions turn to placekicker Ryan Barker to finish some possessions in the red zone. Minnesota’s defense could be stingy there.

FORECAST: The Lions’ defensive front should be ready with a healthy Dani Dennis-Sutton returning to his old, disruptive ways. Taylor struggles to find space to run. Penn State 32, Minnesota 13.

Max Ralph, PennLive reporter

PLAYERS ON SITE: Drew Allar. And especially his ability to protect the ball. Minnesota is among the best in the country with 16 interceptions this season, and if the Gophers want to pull off a big upset, they’ll have to do it with short fields. Allar needs to continue doing what he has done for most of his career by avoiding momentum-changing plays.

Don’t be surprised if… Tyler Warren scores multiple touchdowns again. Yes I know. This is not a hot option. But not only is Warren Penn State’s best player and the Lions will need him in their last real test of the year, but PSU’s push to put Warren in the Heisman conversation is well underway. Franklin and Co. will continue to feed the beast.

FORECAST: A road trip to Minnesota has dashed Penn State’s postseason hopes in the past, but I don’t think that will happen this year. The Nittany Lions are too complete a team and have avoided collapses at every turn this season against weaker opponents. I also really like the way this defense plays. The Gophers will go down swinging, but it won’t be particularly close. Penn State 31, Minnesota 13.

Joe Hermitt, PennLive photojournalist

PLAYERS ON SITE: This isn’t your typical Minnesota offense that likes to run the ball and control the clock. They had a hard time moving the ball on the floor, which made them one-dimensional. If the Gophers can’t at least threaten to run, Penn State will be in the cards and it will be a long day for the home team.

Don’t be surprised if… Penn State’s pass rush takes off, sacking Gophers quarterback Max Brosmer four times and forcing a turnover.

FORECAST: PSU appears to be on track for a home playoff game, and Minnesota doesn’t have the power to stop them. The Lions continue to take care of their business, beating the teams they’re supposed to and marching toward the Dec. 21 deadline at Beaver Stadium. Penn State 28, Minnesota 13.